Gerald L Brinson

Prediction On 2025 Presidential Race. The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a. Trump 2025 presidential polls right now?

Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning each. As of the end of july 2025, assuming a biden gallup approval score of 40 percent and a continued rate of jobs growth between 1 and 2 percent, the.